The Turning Point Of The US Dollar Is Coming.

The US dollar index recorded a sharp rebound last week. Last week, the market came to the three central bank interest rate resolution. The European Central Bank maintained monetary policy unchanged, but central bank governor Delaki said at a subsequent press conference that the strong euro had aroused strong concern at the current level of inflation. If necessary, the European Central Bank could take action in June. His comments made the euro a big setback and boosted the US dollar index reversal and recorded Sanlian Yang.

< /p >

< p > < strong > market value > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > US dollar < /a > prospect < /strong > /p >

< p > because the European central bank governor a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Draghi /a last week suggested that more monetary stimulus measures could be launched to give the euro the most powerful blow within the scope of its ability. Driven by the low euro, the US dollar index hit a 79.92 high of a week and rebounded sharply from the 20 month low.

The market believes that the US index closed above key levels last Friday, plus economic fundamentals and monetary policy also made positive gains, and the US dollar may have come to an inflection point.

< /p >

On the dollar issue, the only consensus of the Wall Street giants is that there is no consensus. In view of the unexpected depreciation of the US dollar, analysts' explanations are varied, from the huge sell-off to the high-yield currency buying caused by the interest trading, to the flow of money related to China's external reserve growth, and to the high-frequency trading with the computer system.

< /p >

At the beginning of this year, the market was generally optimistic about the trend of the US dollar this year, especially in the context of the shrinking QE, which seemed reasonable. However, the trend was not as good as expected in the first half of the year. In the face of the unexpected decline in the US dollar, the market continued to follow the previous expectations. It is believed that the US dollar will rise against the main currencies as the US economy expands and the US Federal Reserve continues to reduce the scale of stimulus. P

< /p >

The P survey shows that the US dollar will rise every quarter against a basket of currencies in the next four quarters, and by the end of 2015, the cumulative increase will reach about 12%.

But for dollar bulls, things will get worse before they get better. The strength of the dollar will ultimately be supported by the weakening of the job market, tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates.

But this is still in the future, not the present.

< /p >

< p > before the dollar is stronger, the market also needs to deal with the Fed's dove rhetoric, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan's tacit stance on easing policy, as well as the diversification of foreign exchange reserves.

When the ECB and the Bank of Japan further relax policies and the Fed tightens policy, it may be a real turning point in the strengthening of the US dollar.

< /p >

< p > there are also reasons why the reason why the US dollar has not been performing well is not very clear. Especially when comparing the situation in the US and other countries or economies like the euro area, this situation is even more puzzling. However, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news /index_c.asp" > the Fed's < /a > will eventually provide support for the US dollar, but it is certain.

< /p >

< p > < strong > data will dominate the market this week < /strong > /p >

This week, the situation in Ukraine and Russia will undoubtedly become the most concerned topic in the market. In the background of losing the central bank's drama, this week's global economic events seem to be relatively dim. However, considering the fact that this week's economic data are still quite numerous, it is still worth investors' persistence in P.

The market will focus on retail sales data in the US. If data outperform expectations, it is expected to push the US dollar further stronger.

< /p >

Economists predict that the US economy will rebound in the second quarter. According to the latest survey, 48 economists interviewed expect that the actual GDP of the US in the second quarter will reach 3.3%, which is higher than the expected rate of 3% in April. P

Most economists believe that economic growth is likely to exceed expectations, but the percentage of respondents who hold this view dropped to 71.8%, down from 75% in April.

< /p >

< p > the US government will announce the retail sales in April in May 13th. It is estimated that in April the monthly rate rose by 0.4%, and the March growth rate was 1.2%, the largest increase since August 2012.

Excluding car sales, the monthly sales increased by 0.6%, plus 0.7% in March, the strongest two consecutive month since the beginning of 2013.

< /p >

Besides, P and Europe are likely to accelerate growth in the first quarter, indicating that the global economy is making progress.

In the first quarter of this year, the euro area GDP growth rate accelerated to 0.4%, the best performance since the first quarter of 2011, and 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.

The European Union statistics bureau will announce the first quarter GDP data in May 15th.

< /p >

Carney P, the governor of the Bank of England, will release quarterly inflation report in May 14th. The market is expected to dig out relevant information on the future policy prospects of the Bank of England in the coming months.

The market expects quarterly inflation reports released in May or similar to February. The Bank of England FPC or in the coming months will adjust the housing market from macro prudential policies, thereby easing the pressure on MPC to raise interest rates.

< /p >

P, Australia's Treasury Secretary, Hodgson will make the first budget report since taking office in May 13th. The market is now generally expecting that the Australian government may record a deficit of 46 billion Australian dollars in the current fiscal year. The government's action to reduce taxes and increase taxes may narrow the budget gap in the next fiscal year to 30 billion Australian dollars.

< /p >

The EU statistics bureau will release the euro quarter first quarter economic value quarterly rate in May 15th, less than P > euro GDP data. The market now generally expects that the growth rate may be slightly expanded to 0.4%, thus recording the best performance since the first quarter of 2011.

< /p >

< p > the Japanese government will release the first quarter gross domestic product quarterly data in May 15th. The market is now generally expecting that the actual GDP initial value will increase to 4.2% in the first quarter, but the second quarter will probably shrink by 3.35% because of the increase in consumption tax.

< /p >

Except for the above data, the 5 Fed officials, including Yellen, will also deliver intensive talks this week. Investors need to be concerned about their statements about the economy and the expected increase in interest rates. P

< /p >